August PCE inflation came in cooler than Wall Street expected on Wednesday, easing pressure on the Fed’s preferred gauge and lifting U.S. equity futures into the quarter-end open, according to Invezz, FXStreet, and Commerce Department figures carried across desks (Sept. 30, 2026). Headline PCE rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year (vs. ~3.7% expected). Core PCE rose 0.2% m/m and ~3.0% y/y (vs. ~0.3% / 3.3% expected).
Separately, final Q2 GDP was revised up to a 2.2% annualized pace (from 1.5%), and the ADP private-payrolls print showed +90,000 jobs in September (vs. ~70,000 expected). Tuesday’s close had already left the Dow at 51,349.92 (−0.26%), the S&P 500 at 7,670.84 (−0.17%), and the Nasdaq at 26,797.54 (−0.08%) with the 10-year yield near multi-decade highs intraday.
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Get ratesYields ease; October hike odds cool
After the PCE print, S&P and Nasdaq futures were reported up about 0.3% in several wraps while the 10-year yield retreated toward ~5.23% from earlier session highs near the highest levels since ~2007. CME FedWatch odds of an October hike had already slipped (wraps cited ~37–51% range depending on the snapshot) after New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday he saw “no urgency” for further action. Tape — not a trade call. Not investment advice.
Sources
- Invezz: US PCE inflation rises 3.4% in August, below expectations (Sept. 30, 2026)
- FXStreet: PCE cools October rate hike expectations (Sept. 30, 2026)
- Tuesday close wraps: FMT / Reuters-style figures as cited
