The services side of the U.S. economy kept growing in September, but the inflation signal inside the report got louder. The ISM Services PMI registered 54.9, down from 55.4 in August and its 27th straight month in expansion, while the Prices Index rose to 74.0 from 72.6 — the highest since July 2022 — according to the Institute for Supply Management’s release at 10 a.m. ET Monday. New Orders eased to 59.8 (from 60.9), Business Activity fell to 56.5 (from 61.7) and Employment moved back above 50 to 50.1 for the first time in three months.

ISM’s Steve Miller said fuel costs were mentioned twice as often as any other single issue affecting respondents’ supply chains, alongside tariffs; the Backlog of Orders index rose to 56.6, and New Export Orders fell into contraction at 46.9.

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The tape: Nasdaq up, Dow lagging, yields high

Stocks were mixed after the open. Robinhood marks around 9:27 a.m. MT showed SPY near $772.64 (+0.39% vs Friday’s $769.64 close), QQQ near $753.41 (+0.51%) and DIA near $510.18 (−0.18%). Nvidia was up about 1.2% after touching a record Friday, while Intel was down about 2.2% after dropping more than 4% premarket, per Reuters. CoinDesk reported the 10-year Treasury yield up two basis points to about 5.30% after the ISM data.

Traders see about an 80% chance the Fed holds rates this month, though a December hike remains largely priced, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Reuters. September FOMC minutes arrive Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, and Q3 earnings start this week with PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Levi Strauss, Constellation Brands and Applied Digital among reporters (Yahoo Finance, TipRanks).

Tape — not a trade call

A 74 prices-paid reading alongside a ~5.30% 10-year is the macro backdrop for risk assets, crypto included — context, not a recommendation. Not investment advice.

Sources